Written by Nicholas Vetrisek
This is my definitive election prediction. I am not an “expert” by any conceivable metric, but given that those same “experts” completely bungled 2016 and will do the same this year, I think I should be fine.
What is my methodology? Check 2016, check the years before that, look at the areas that either were or currently are on fire, and a few other measures I came up with on my own. Not exactly a “science” but it doesn’t need to be.
President Trump will win every state he did in 2016. This is not the prediction part, this is fact. Florida, Wisconsin, and Michigan may as well belong to the GOP now, and Pennsylvania, the only state that could have flipped, is surely going to Trump because of Biden’s fossil fuel statements during the last debate.
In addition, Trump will no doubt pick up New Hampshire, but the states I believe will flip that nobody mentions are Nevada, New Mexico, Maine, and Minnesota.
Minnesota is the easiest one to explain. The entire state was on fire on two different occasions and riots tend to make people vote Republican. The state was teetering on the brink anyway. Maine was also very close in 2016 and Gary Johnson’s 5% vote share in the state easily makes up for Trump’s loss in 2016. The Libertarians are not in play this year for the same reason I believe Trump will expand on his victory in 2016.
Everyone talks about his successes and failures as a president, but the best factor in his favor is the fact that he is president at all. In 2016, people were terrified because here was a billionaire game show host trying to become the leader of the free world and having a serious chance at winning. Nobody knew what to expect of him and many people voted for Clinton because she was experienced.
Now that Donald Trump has been the president for the last four years, people know what to expect of him and they know that the country won’t completely implode if he’s president. This alone is the major reason why he will win this year. This is what will swing close states like Nevada and New Mexico, and remove Libertarians entirely from the equation. The only reason Libertarians did as well as they did in 2016 was because it was a choice between the most hated politician in history (Clinton) and a madman that, according to at least one source, was the most dangerous threat to world stability (Trump). Now, it’s a corrupt politician (Biden) and a surprisingly principled conservative that simply can’t keep his mouth shut.
I know people in real life that voted for Clinton because they were scared of Trump that are changing their mind and the #WalkAway movement is this on a larger scale. To use a well known figure as an example, Ben Shapiro is doing something similar. He didn’t vote for Trump in 2016, but he endorsed Trump this year without hesitation.
This is also why Republicans will win a majority in the House of Representatives. Republicans have done consistently well in the House even with mediocre politicians like John Boehner leading the charge. Now that people know who Trump is and what his agenda is, Republicans can win back many of the seats they lost, some of which flipped with less than 1% of the vote. California’s 25th Congressional District with Mike Garcia is perfect proof of this. It’s a longtime Republican seat that barely flipped in 2018, but immediately was won back by the GOP.
So, my final prediction, is that Trump retakes all of the states he won in 2016, adding New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Nevada, with Republicans also winning a House majority. Keep America Great!