Chen Campaign Post-Election Report

Lanhee and all of us on his team hope that your 2023 is off to a great start and send our best wishes for health and happiness in the Year of the Rabbit, for all who celebrate!

We are grateful for your support and help during the campaign, and wanted to furnish you with an “after-action” analysis of the election results. The bottom line is that Republicans can be competitive across California, but it requires the right candidate, with the right message and a significant resource advantage. Here are our top take-aways:

  1. While we were obviously disappointed in the final outcome, Lanhee was the top-performing statewide Republican candidate in California. Lanhee outperformed the top of the Republican ticket by over 326,000 votes statewide, or about 4 percentage points. He was the first statewide Republican to win San Luis Obispo County since 2014, and had strong winning margins in key counties across the state, like Orange, Fresno, Riverside, and San Bernardino.
  2. Lanhee was actually the leading vote-getter of any Republican in the country in 2022. He won more votes (almost 4.8 million) than Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida (4.6 million), Governor Greg Abbott of Texas (4.4 million), or any other statewide Republican candidate in any other state in America.
  3. Lanhee performed well in key congressional districts throughout California. In total, he won in 16 congressional districts, including all Republican-held districts plus four pivotal or “swing” districts across the state. Lanhee won both of the targeted congressional races in coastal Southern California, running ahead of Democrat Katie Porter in CD-47 by 9 points (outperforming Republican Scott Baugh by almost 13 points) and Democrat Mike Levin in CD-49 by over 6.5 points (outperforming Republican Brian Maryott by nearly 12 points). Even in congressional districts Lanhee did not win, he did significantly better than Donald Trump did in 2020 — for example, in CA-26, a seat held by Democrat Julia Brownley, which President Biden won by 20 points in 2020, Lanhee lost by just 0.2 percentage points.

    Below is a detailed analysis of Lanhee’s performance in some of California’s most competitive congressional districts:

  • CD9 (D, Harder): Chen +6.4%
    • Patti lost by -9.6%
    • Chen +16.0% vs Patti
    • Chen +19% spread vs 2020 Pres
  • CD13 (R, Duarte): Chen +9.9%
    • Duarte wins by 0.4%
    • Chen +9.5% vs Duarte
    • Chen +20.8% spread vs 2020 Pres
  • CD21 (D, Costa): Chen +2.5%
    • Maher lost by -8.4%
    • Chen +10.1% vs Maher
    • Chen +22.9% spread vs 2020 Pres
  • CD22 (R, Valadao): Chen +3.5%
    • Valadao wins by 3.0%
    • Chen +0.5% vs Valadao
    • Chen +16.5% spread vs 2020 Pres
  • CD47 (D, Porter): Chen +9.3%
    • Baugh lost by -3.4%
    • Chen +12.7% vs Baugh
    • Chen +20.4% spread vs 2020 Pres
  • CD49 (D, Levin): Chen +6.6%
    • Maryott lost by -5.3%
    • Chen +11.9% vs Maryott
    • Chen +18.0% spread vs 2020 Pres
  1. Lanhee also fared well in crucial state Assembly and Senate seats across California. He won 23 State Assembly districts in the state (all Republican seats plus five seats held by Democrats) and 13 State Senate districts (all Republican seats plus six seats held by Democrats). Some of Lanhee’s illustrative successes: In Assembly District 66, a coastal Los Angeles County district held by Democrat Al Muratsuchi, Lanhee won by 0.6 percentage points and outperformed the GOP candidate there by 21 points; In Senate District 38, a coastal San Diego and Orange County district held by Democrat Catherine Blakespear, Lanhee won by 3.2 points and outperformed a very strong GOP contender by nearly 8 points. Below are some of Lanhee’s results in pivotal state legislative districts:
  • AD40 (D, Schiavo): Chen +3.3%
    • Valladares lost by -0.3%
    • Chen +3.0% vs Valladares
    • Chen +19.1% spread vs 2020 Pres
  • AD66 (D, Muratsuchi): Chen +0.6%
    • Barks lost by -19.9%
    • Chen +20.5% vs Barks
    • Chen +28.7% spread vs 2020 Pres
  • AD76 (D, Maienschein): Chen +6.4%
    • Bruce-Lane lost by -3.2%
    • Chen +9.6% vs Bruce-Lane
    • Chen +22.5% spread vs 2020 Pres
  • SD14 (D, Caballero): Chen +0.8%
    • Shor lost by -12.5%
    • Chen +13.3% vs Shor
    • Chen +21.9% spread vs 2020 Pres
  • SD16 (D, Hurtado): Chen +9.6%
    • Shepard lost by -0.0% (20 votes)
    • Chen +9.6% vs Shepard
    • Chen +18.0% spread vs 2020 Pres
  • SD38 (D, Blakespear): Chen +3.2%
    • Gunderson lost by -4.5%
    • Chen +7.7% vs Gunderson
    • Chen +19.5% spread vs 2020 Pres

The analysis linked here was performed by the CAGOP and includes Lanhee’s results in all congressional and state legislative districts across the state. Additionally, the Secretary of State’s final report on the 2022 election is a good source of information for those looking for additional county-by-county data. Our team continues to dig through the data for lessons to be learned from the election.

While there is opportunity for Republicans across the state, it’s clear that much work remains to be done for the party to be electorally viable at the statewide level and in key parts of the state, like Los Angeles County. Lanhee looks forward to continuing this work with all of you, in partnership with the strong leadership of Chairwoman Jessica Patterson at the California Republican Party.

Lanhee will remain an active voice in the conversation about the future of our state and will keep you updated on opportunities to work together.